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1.
Environ Health Perspect ; 131(12): 127010, 2023 Dec.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38078423

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Air pollution is a major risk factor for planetary health and has long been suspected of predisposing humans to respiratory diseases induced by pathogens like influenza viruses. However, epidemiological evidence remains elusive due to lack of longitudinal data from large cohorts. OBJECTIVE: Our aim is to quantify the short-term association of influenza incidence with exposure to ambient air pollutants in Chinese cities. METHODS: Based on air pollutant data and influenza surveillance data from 82 cities in China over a period of 5 years, we applied a two-stage time series analysis to assess the association of daily incidence of reported influenza cases with six common air pollutants [particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤2.5µm (PM2.5), particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤10µm (PM10), NO2, SO2, CO, and O3], while adjusting for potential confounders including temperature, relative humidity, seasonality, and holiday effects. We built a distributed lag Poisson model for one or multiple pollutants in each individual city in the first stage and conducted a meta-analysis to pool city-specific estimates in the second stage. RESULTS: A total of 3,735,934 influenza cases were reported in 82 cities from 2015 to 2019, accounting for 72.71% of the overall case number reported in the mainland of China. The time series models for each pollutant alone showed that the daily incidence of reported influenza cases was positively associated with almost all air pollutants except for ozone. The most prominent short-term associations were found for SO2 and NO2 with cumulative risk ratios of 1.094 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.054, 1.136] and 1.093 (95% CI: 1.067, 1.119), respectively, for each 10 µg/m3 increase in the concentration at each of the lags of 1-7 d. Only NO2 showed a significant association with the daily incidence of influenza cases in the multipollutant model that adjusts all six air pollutants together. The impact of air pollutants on influenza was generally found to be greater in children, in subtropical cities, and during cold months. DISCUSSION: Increased exposure to ambient air pollutants, particularly NO2, is associated with a higher risk of influenza-associated illness. Policies on reducing air pollution levels may help alleviate the disease burden due to influenza infection. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP12146.


Asunto(s)
Contaminantes Atmosféricos , Contaminación del Aire , Contaminantes Ambientales , Gripe Humana , Niño , Humanos , Gripe Humana/epidemiología , Contaminación del Aire/análisis , Contaminantes Atmosféricos/análisis , Material Particulado/análisis , China/epidemiología , Contaminantes Ambientales/análisis , Dióxido de Nitrógeno/análisis , Exposición a Riesgos Ambientales/análisis
3.
Int J Infect Dis ; 122: 38-45, 2022 Sep.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35605950

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVES: Selenium deficiency can be associated with increased susceptibility to some viral infections and even more severe diseases. In this study, we aimed to examine whether this association applies to severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS). METHOD: An observational study was conducted based on the data of 13,305 human SFTS cases reported in mainland China from 2010 to 2020. The associations among incidence, case fatality rate of SFTS, and crop selenium concentration at the county level were explored. The selenium level in a cohort of patients with SFTS was tested, and its relationship with clinical outcomes was evaluated. RESULTS: The association between selenium-deficient crops and the incidence rate of SFTS was confirmed by multivariate Poisson analysis, with an estimated incidence rate ratio (IRR, 95% confidence interval [CI]) of 4.549 (4.215-4.916) for moderate selenium-deficient counties and 16.002 (14.706-17.431) for severe selenium-deficient counties. In addition, a higher mortality rate was also observed in severe selenium-deficient counties with an IRR of 1.409 (95% CI: 1.061-1.909). A clinical study on 120 patients with SFTS showed an association between serum selenium deficiency and severe SFTS (odds ratio, OR: 2.94; 95% CI: 1.00-8.67) or fatal SFTS (OR: 7.55; 95% CI: 1.14-50.16). CONCLUSION: Selenium deficiency is associated with increased susceptibility to SFTS and poor clinical outcomes.


Asunto(s)
Infecciones por Bunyaviridae , Phlebovirus , Selenio , Síndrome de Trombocitopenia Febril Grave , Trombocitopenia , China/epidemiología , Fiebre/epidemiología , Humanos , Trombocitopenia/epidemiología
4.
Transbound Emerg Dis ; 69(5): e2122-e2131, 2022 Sep.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35366384

RESUMEN

The ongoing enzootic circulation of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in the Middle East and North Africa is increasingly raising the concern about the possibility of its recombination with other human-adapted coronaviruses, particularly the pandemic SARS-CoV-2. We aim to provide an updated picture about ecological niches of MERS-CoV and associated socio-environmental drivers. Based on 356 confirmed MERS cases with animal contact reported to the WHO and 63 records of animal infections collected from the literature as of 30 May 2020, we assessed ecological niches of MERS-CoV using an ensemble model integrating three machine learning algorithms. With a high predictive accuracy (area under receiver operating characteristic curve = 91.66% in test data), the ensemble model estimated that ecologically suitable areas span over the Middle East, South Asia and the whole North Africa, much wider than the range of reported locally infected MERS cases and test-positive animal samples. Ecological suitability for MERS-CoV was significantly associated with high levels of bareland coverage (relative contribution = 30.06%), population density (7.28%), average temperature (6.48%) and camel density (6.20%). Future surveillance and intervention programs should target the high-risk populations and regions informed by updated quantitative analyses.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , Coronavirus del Síndrome Respiratorio de Oriente Medio , Animales , COVID-19/epidemiología , COVID-19/veterinaria , Camelus , Humanos , Aprendizaje Automático , SARS-CoV-2
6.
Infect Dis Poverty ; 10(1): 66, 2021 May 08.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33964965

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: The ongoing transmission of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in the Middle East and its expansion to other regions are raising concerns of a potential pandemic. An in-depth analysis about both population and molecular epidemiology of this pathogen is needed. METHODS: MERS cases reported globally as of June 2020 were collected mainly from World Health Organization official reports, supplemented by other reliable sources. Determinants for case fatality and spatial diffusion of MERS were assessed with Logistic regressions and Cox proportional hazard models, respectively. Phylogenetic and phylogeographic analyses were performed to examine the evolution and migration history of MERS-CoV. RESULTS: A total of 2562 confirmed MERS cases with 150 case clusters were reported with a case fatality rate of 32.7% (95% CI: 30.9‒34.6%). Saudi Arabia accounted for 83.6% of the cases. Age of ≥ 65 years old, underlying conditions and ≥ 5 days delay in diagnosis were independent risk factors for death. However, a history of animal contact was associated with a higher risk (adjusted OR = 2.97, 95% CI: 1.10-7.98) among female cases < 65 years but with a lower risk (adjusted OR = 0.31, 95% CI: 0.18-0.51) among male cases ≥ 65 years old. Diffusion of the disease was fastest from its origin in Saudi Arabia to the east, and was primarily driven by the transportation network. The most recent sub-clade C5.1 (since 2013) was associated with non-synonymous mutations and a higher mortality rate. Phylogeographic analyses pointed to Riyadh of Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi of the United Arab Emirates as the hubs for both local and international spread of MERS-CoV. CONCLUSIONS: MERS-CoV remains primarily locally transmitted in the Middle East, with opportunistic exportation to other continents and a potential of causing transmission clusters of human cases. Animal contact is associated with a higher risk of death, but the association differs by age and sex. Transportation network is the leading driver for the spatial diffusion of the disease. These findings how this pathogen spread are helpful for targeting public health surveillance and interventions to control endemics and to prevent a potential pandemic.


Asunto(s)
Infecciones por Coronavirus/epidemiología , Infecciones por Coronavirus/transmisión , Adulto , Anciano , Animales , Evolución Molecular , Femenino , Humanos , Modelos Logísticos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Coronavirus del Síndrome Respiratorio de Oriente Medio/aislamiento & purificación , Epidemiología Molecular , Mortalidad , Filogenia , Arabia Saudita/epidemiología , Análisis de Supervivencia , Zoonosis/epidemiología , Zoonosis/virología
7.
Nat Commun ; 12(1): 1075, 2021 02 17.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33597544

RESUMEN

Understanding ecological niches of major tick species and prevalent tick-borne pathogens is crucial for efficient surveillance and control of tick-borne diseases. Here we provide an up-to-date review on the spatial distributions of ticks and tick-borne pathogens in China. We map at the county level 124 tick species, 103 tick-borne agents, and human cases infected with 29 species (subspecies) of tick-borne pathogens that were reported in China during 1950-2018. Haemaphysalis longicornis is found to harbor the highest variety of tick-borne agents, followed by Ixodes persulcatus, Dermacentor nutalli and Rhipicephalus microplus. Using a machine learning algorithm, we assess ecoclimatic and socioenvironmental drivers for the distributions of 19 predominant vector ticks and two tick-borne pathogens associated with the highest disease burden. The model-predicted suitable habitats for the 19 tick species are 14‒476% larger in size than the geographic areas where these species were detected, indicating severe under-detection. Tick species harboring pathogens of imminent threats to public health should be prioritized for more active field surveillance.


Asunto(s)
Infestaciones por Garrapatas/epidemiología , Enfermedades por Picaduras de Garrapatas/epidemiología , Garrapatas/crecimiento & desarrollo , Animales , China/epidemiología , Análisis por Conglomerados , Geografía , Incidencia , Especificidad de la Especie , Infestaciones por Garrapatas/parasitología , Enfermedades por Picaduras de Garrapatas/parasitología , Garrapatas/clasificación , Garrapatas/fisiología
8.
Clin Infect Dis ; 73(11): e3851-e3858, 2021 12 06.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33068430

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: The growing epidemics of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS), an emerging tick-borne disease in East Asia, and its high case fatality rate have raised serious public health concerns. METHODS: Surveillance data on laboratory-confirmed SFTS cases in China were collected. The spatiotemporal dynamics and epidemiological features were explored. The socioeconomic and environmental drivers were identified for SFTS diffusion using survival analysis and for SFTS persistence using a two-stage generalized boosted regression tree model. RESULTS: During 2010‒2018, a total of 7721 laboratory-confirmed SFTS cases were reported in China, with an overall case fatality rate (CFR) of 10.5%. The average annual incidence increased >20 times and endemic areas expanded from 27 to 1574 townships, whereas the CFR declined from 19% to 10% during this period. Four geographical clusters-the Changbai Mountain area, the Jiaodong Peninsula, the Taishan Mountain area, and the Huaiyangshan Mountain area-were identified. Diffusion and persistence of the disease were both driven by elevation, high coverages of woods, crops, and shrubs, and the vicinity of habitats of migratory birds but had different meteorological drivers. Residents ≥60 years old in rural areas with crop fields and tea farms were at increased risk to SFTS. CONCLUSIONS: Surveillance of SFTS and intervention programs need to be targeted at areas ecologically suitability for vector ticks and in the vicinity of migratory birds to curb the growing epidemic.


Asunto(s)
Infecciones por Bunyaviridae , Phlebovirus , Síndrome de Trombocitopenia Febril Grave , Trombocitopenia , Infecciones por Bunyaviridae/epidemiología , China/epidemiología , Fiebre/epidemiología , Humanos , Persona de Mediana Edad
9.
Vector Borne Zoonotic Dis ; 20(11): 817-824, 2020 11.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32749919

RESUMEN

Background: Human babesiosis is an emerging zoonotic disease transmitted by ticks in China. A few systematic reports on Babesia spp. was involved with ticks, especially in the human babesiosis endemic areas in Northeastern China. Materials and Methods: Ticks were collected from 30 individual waypoints along 2.0 km transects in two recreational forests. Babesia spp. infection in ticks was screened by amplifying the partial 18s rRNA gene with subsequent sequencing. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to determine the association between tick infection and related environmental risk factors. Cluster analyses were performed using SaTScan v6.0 software to identify any geographical cluster of infected ticks. Results: A total of 2380 Ixodes persulcatus and 461 Haemaphysalis concinna ticks were collected. Of the 0.97% of I. persulcatus ticks that tested positive, five Babesia species were identified, including B. bigemina (n = 6), B. divergens (n = 2), B. microti (n = 3), B. venatorum (n = 11), and one novel strain HLJ-8. Thirteen (2.92%) H. concinna ticks tested positive for B. bigemina (n = 1), B. divergens (n = 1), three genetic variants of Babesia represented by HLJ-874, which was closely related to Babesia sp.MA#361-1, and eight other Babesia variants represented by HLJ242, which were similar to B. crassa. Each study site had 5-6 different Babesia spp. One waypoint was more likely to yield B. venatorum (relative risk = 15.36, p = 0.045) than all other waypoints. Conclusions: There exists a high genetic diversity of Babesia spp. across a relatively small sampled region. Further study is needed to understand the risks these variants pose to human health.


Asunto(s)
Babesia/genética , Babesia/fisiología , Variación Genética , Ixodidae/microbiología , Filogenia , Animales , Babesia/clasificación , China , Modelos Logísticos , ARN Protozoario/genética , ARN Ribosómico 18S/genética , Factores de Riesgo
10.
J Dig Dis ; 21(4): 199-204, 2020 Apr.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32267098

RESUMEN

An epidemic of an acute respiratory syndrome caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Wuhan, China, now known as coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), beginning in December 2019, has attracted an intense amount of attention worldwide. As the natural history and variety of clinical presentations of this disease unfolds, extrapulmonary symptoms of COVID-19 have emerged, especially in the digestive system. While the respiratory mode of transmission is well known and is probably the principal mode of transmission of this disease, a possibility of the fecal-oral route of transmission has also emerged in various case series and clinical scenarios. In this review article, we summarize four different aspects in published studies to date: (a) gastrointestinal manifestations of COVID-19; (b) microbiological and virological investigations; (c) the role of fecal-oral transmission; and (d) prevention and control of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the digestive endoscopy room. A timely understanding of the relationship between the disease and the digestive system and implementing effective preventive measures are of great importance for a favorable outcome of the disease and can help climnicians to mitigate further transmission by taking appropriate measures.


Asunto(s)
Infecciones por Coronavirus/transmisión , Infección Hospitalaria/prevención & control , Enfermedades del Sistema Digestivo , Endoscopía del Sistema Digestivo/normas , Gastroenterología/normas , Control de Infecciones/normas , Neumonía Viral/transmisión , Betacoronavirus/aislamiento & purificación , COVID-19 , Infecciones por Coronavirus/complicaciones , Infecciones por Coronavirus/virología , Infección Hospitalaria/etiología , Infección Hospitalaria/virología , Enfermedades del Sistema Digestivo/diagnóstico , Enfermedades del Sistema Digestivo/etiología , Enfermedades del Sistema Digestivo/microbiología , Enfermedades del Sistema Digestivo/virología , Unidades Hospitalarias/normas , Humanos , Pandemias , Equipo de Protección Personal/normas , Neumonía Viral/complicaciones , Neumonía Viral/virología , SARS-CoV-2
11.
Emerg Microbes Infect ; 9(1): 817-826, 2020 Dec.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32212956

RESUMEN

Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is an emerging infectious disease with increasing spread. Currently SFTS transmission has expanded beyond Asian countries, however, with definitive global extents and risk patterns remained obscure. Here we established an exhaustive database that included globally reported locations of human SFTS cases and the competent vector, Haemaphysalis longicornis (H. longicornis), as well as the explanatory environmental variables, based on which, the potential geographic range of H. longicornis and risk areas for SFTS were mapped by applying two machine learning methods. Ten predictors were identified contributing to global distribution for H. longicornis with relative contribution ≥1%. Outside contemporary known distribution, we predict high receptivity to H. longicornis across two continents, including northeastern USA, New Zealand, parts of Australia, and several Pacific islands. Eight key drivers of SFTS cases occurrence were identified, including elevation, predicted probability of H. longicornis presence, two temperature-related factors, two precipitation-related factors, the richness of mammals and percentage coverage of water bodies. The globally model-predicted risk map of human SFTS occurrence was created and validated effective for discriminating the actual affected and unaffected areas (median predictive probability 0.74 vs. 0.04, P < 0.001) in three countries with reported cases outside China. The high-risk areas (probability ≥50%) were predicted mainly in east-central China, most parts of the Korean peninsula and southern Japan, and northern New Zealand. Our findings highlight areas where an intensive vigilance for potential SFTS spread or invasion events should be advocated, owing to their high receptibility to H. longicornis distribution.


Asunto(s)
Infecciones por Bunyaviridae/transmisión , Vectores de Enfermedades , Salud Global/estadística & datos numéricos , Ixodidae/virología , Aprendizaje Automático , Trombocitopenia/epidemiología , Adolescente , Adulto , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Animales , Infecciones por Bunyaviridae/epidemiología , Niño , Preescolar , Enfermedades Transmisibles Emergentes/epidemiología , Enfermedades Transmisibles Emergentes/transmisión , Enfermedades Transmisibles Emergentes/virología , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Phlebovirus/patogenicidad , Temperatura , Trombocitopenia/virología , Adulto Joven
12.
Ticks Tick Borne Dis ; 8(4): 631-639, 2017 06.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28461151

RESUMEN

Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) has become an increasing public health threat in recent years, ranging from Europe, through far-eastern Russia to Japan and northern China. However, the neglect of its expansion and scarce analyses of the dynamics have made the overall disease burden and the risk distribution of the disease being unclear in mainland China. In this study, we described epidemiological characteristics of 2117 reported human TBE cases from 2006 to 2013 in mainland China. About 99% of the cases were reported in forest areas of northeastern China, and 93% of reported infections occurred during May-July. Cases were primarily male (67%), mostly in 30-59 years among all age-gender groups. Farmers (31.6%), domestic workers (20.1%) and forest workers (17.9%) accounted for the majority of the patients, and the proportions of patients from farmers and domestic workers were increasing in recent years. The epidemiological features of TBE differed slightly across the affected regions. The distribution and features of the disease in three main endemic areas of mainland China were also summarized. Using the Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) model, we found that the presence of TBE was significantly associated with a composite meteorological index, altitude, the coverage of broad-leaved forest, the coverage of mixed broadleaf-conifer forest, and the distribution of Ixodes persulcatus (I. persulcatus) ticks. The model-predicted probability of presence of human TBE cases in mainland China was mapped at the county level. The spatial distribution of human TBE in China was largely driven by the distributions of forests and I. persulcatus ticks, altitude, and climate. Enhanced surveillance and intervention for human TBE in the high-risk regions, particularly on the forest areas in north-eastern China, is necessary to prevent human infections.


Asunto(s)
Distribución Animal , Virus de la Encefalitis Transmitidos por Garrapatas/aislamiento & purificación , Encefalitis Transmitida por Garrapatas/epidemiología , Bosques , Ixodes/fisiología , Adolescente , Adulto , Anciano , Animales , Niño , Preescolar , China/epidemiología , Encefalitis Transmitida por Garrapatas/virología , Femenino , Humanos , Incidencia , Lactante , Recién Nacido , Ixodes/virología , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Prevalencia , Factores de Riesgo , Adulto Joven
13.
Front Microbiol ; 8: 387, 2017.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28337190

RESUMEN

Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is a tick-borne viral disease affecting hundreds of people in China each year. To better understand the epidemiological characteristics and environmental risk factors associated with the incidence of SFTS in Hubei Province, China, we conducted a retrospective epidemiological study and risk assessment of SFTS from 2011 to 2016. Although, the incidence and epidemic areas of SFTS are increasing, the fatality rate has decreased. Elderly farmers are the population most commonly infected with SFTS virus between May and July in the northeast Hubei Province, which seems to be consistent with local agricultural activities and the seasonal abundance of ticks. Spatial scanning showed that regions bordering with Xinyang City, Henan Province accounted for most of the SFTS cases in Hubei Province, and there was a significant association of SFTS incidence with temporal changes in the climate within these clusters. Multivariate modeling analysis identified density of cattle, rain-fed cropland, built-up land, temperature, and relative humidity as independent risk factors for the distribution of SFTS. Future epidemiological and serological studies are warranted to elucidate the dynamics and immunity patterns of local SFTS disease and to optimize interventions.

14.
BMC Infect Dis ; 17(1): 13, 2017 01 05.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28056840

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: In the last decade, scrub typhus (ST) has been emerging or re-emerging in some areas of Asia, including Guangzhou, one of the most affected endemic areas of ST in China. METHODS: Based on the data on all cases reported in Guangzhou from 2006 to 2014, we characterized the epidemiological features, and identified environmental determinants for the spatial distribution of ST using a panel negative binomial model. RESULTS: A total of 4821 scrub typhus cases were reported in Guangzhou during 2006-2014. The annual incidence increased noticeably and the increase was relatively high and rapid in rural townships and among elderly females. The majority of cases (86.8%) occurred during May-October, and farmers constituted the majority of the cases, accounting for 33.9% in urban and 61.6% in rural areas. The number of housekeeper patients had a rapid increment in both rural and urban areas during the study period. Atmospheric pressure and relative humidity with lags of 1 or 2 months, distributions of broadleaved forest and rural township were identified as determinants for the spatiotemporal distribution of scrub typhus. CONCLUSION: Our results indicate that surveillance and public education need to be focused on the elderly farmers in rural areas covered with broadleaf forest in southern China.


Asunto(s)
Tifus por Ácaros/epidemiología , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , China/epidemiología , Femenino , Humanos , Incidencia , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Modelos Estadísticos , Factores de Riesgo , Población Rural/estadística & datos numéricos , Estaciones del Año
15.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis ; 10(8): e0004875, 2016 08.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27479297

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Scrub typhus is endemic in the Asia-Pacific region including China, and the number of reported cases has increased dramatically in the past decade. However, the spatial-temporal dynamics and the potential risk factors in transmission of scrub typhus in mainland China have yet to be characterized. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to explore the spatiotemporal dynamics of reported scrub typhus cases in mainland China between January 2006 and December 2014, to detect the location of high risk spatiotemporal clusters of scrub typhus cases, and identify the potential risk factors affecting the re-emergence of the disease. METHOD: Monthly cases of scrub typhus reported at the county level between 2006 and 2014 were obtained from the Chinese Center for Diseases Control and Prevention. Time-series analyses, spatiotemporal cluster analyses, and spatial scan statistics were used to explore the characteristics of the scrub typhus incidence. To explore the association between scrub typhus incidence and environmental variables panel Poisson regression analysis was conducted. RESULTS: During the time period between 2006 and 2014 a total of 54,558 scrub typhus cases were reported in mainland China, which grew exponentially. The majority of cases were reported each year between July and November, with peak incidence during October every year. The spatiotemporal dynamics of scrub typhus varied over the study period with high-risk clusters identified in southwest, southern, and middle-eastern part of China. Scrub typhus incidence was positively correlated with the percentage of shrub and meteorological variables including temperature and precipitation. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study demonstrate areas in China that could be targeted with public health interventions to mitigate the growing threat of scrub typhus in the country.


Asunto(s)
Tifus por Ácaros/epidemiología , Tifus por Ácaros/transmisión , Estaciones del Año , Temperatura , China/epidemiología , Humanos , Incidencia , Orientia tsutsugamushi , Análisis de Regresión , Factores de Riesgo , Análisis Espacio-Temporal
16.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 113(16): 4488-93, 2016 Apr 19.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27035948

RESUMEN

Sierra Leone is the most severely affected country by an unprecedented outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in West Africa. Although successfully contained, the transmission dynamics of EVD and the impact of interventions in the country remain unclear. We established a database of confirmed and suspected EVD cases from May 2014 to September 2015 in Sierra Leone and mapped the spatiotemporal distribution of cases at the chiefdom level. A Poisson transmission model revealed that the transmissibility at the chiefdom level, estimated as the average number of secondary infections caused by a patient per week, was reduced by 43% [95% confidence interval (CI): 30%, 52%] after October 2014, when the strategic plan of the United Nations Mission for Emergency Ebola Response was initiated, and by 65% (95% CI: 57%, 71%) after the end of December 2014, when 100% case isolation and safe burials were essentially achieved, both compared with before October 2014. Population density, proximity to Ebola treatment centers, cropland coverage, and atmospheric temperature were associated with EVD transmission. The household secondary attack rate (SAR) was estimated to be 0.059 (95% CI: 0.050, 0.070) for the overall outbreak. The household SAR was reduced by 82%, from 0.093 to 0.017, after the nationwide campaign to achieve 100% case isolation and safe burials had been conducted. This study provides a complete overview of the transmission dynamics of the 2014-2015 EVD outbreak in Sierra Leone at both chiefdom and household levels. The interventions implemented in Sierra Leone seem effective in containing the epidemic, particularly in interrupting household transmission.


Asunto(s)
Bases de Datos Factuales , Ebolavirus , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/epidemiología , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/terapia , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/transmisión , Modelos Biológicos , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Sierra Leona/epidemiología
17.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis ; 10(4): e0004637, 2016 Apr.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27097318

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Anthrax, a global re-emerging zoonotic disease in recent years is enzootic in mainland China. Despite its significance to the public health, spatiotemporal distributions of the disease in human and livestock and its potential driving factors remain poorly understood. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using the national surveillance data of human and livestock anthrax from 2005 to 2013, we conducted a retrospective epidemiological study and risk assessment of anthrax in mainland China. The potential determinants for the temporal and spatial distributions of human anthrax were also explored. We found that the majority of human anthrax cases were located in six provinces in western and northeastern China, and five clustering areas with higher incidences were identified. The disease mostly peaked in July or August, and males aged 30-49 years had higher incidence than other subgroups. Monthly incidence of human anthrax was positively correlated with monthly average temperature, relative humidity and monthly accumulative rainfall with lags of 0-2 months. A boosted regression trees (BRT) model at the county level reveals that densities of cattle, sheep and human, coverage of meadow, coverage of typical grassland, elevation, coverage of topsoil with pH > 6.1, concentration of organic carbon in topsoil, and the meteorological factors have contributed substantially to the spatial distribution of the disease. The model-predicted probability of occurrence of human cases in mainland China was mapped at the county level. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Anthrax in China was characterized by significant seasonality and spatial clustering. The spatial distribution of human anthrax was largely driven by livestock husbandry, human density, land cover, elevation, topsoil features and climate. Enhanced surveillance and intervention for livestock and human anthrax in the high-risk regions, particularly on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, is the key to the prevention of human infections.


Asunto(s)
Carbunco/epidemiología , Carbunco/veterinaria , Topografía Médica , Zoonosis/epidemiología , Adulto , Factores de Edad , Crianza de Animales Domésticos , Animales , Bovinos , China/epidemiología , Clima , Monitoreo Epidemiológico , Femenino , Humanos , Incidencia , Ganado , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Exposición Profesional , Estudios Retrospectivos , Medición de Riesgo , Estaciones del Año , Ovinos , Análisis Espacio-Temporal , Adulto Joven
18.
Sci Rep ; 5: 18610, 2015 Dec 22.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26691585

RESUMEN

It has been documented that the epidemiological characteristics of human infections with H7N9 differ significantly between H5N1. However, potential factors that may explain the different spatial distributions remain unexplored. We use boosted regression tree (BRT) models to explore the association of agro-ecological, environmental and meteorological variables with the occurrence of human cases of H7N9 and H5N1, and map the probabilities of occurrence of human cases. Live poultry markets, density of human, coverage of built-up land, relative humidity and precipitation were significant predictors for both. In addition, density of poultry, coverage of shrub and temperature played important roles for human H7N9 infection, whereas human H5N1 infection was associated with coverage of forest and water body. Based on the risks and distribution of ecological characteristics which may facilitate the circulation of the two viruses, we found Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta, along with a few spots on the southeast coastline, to be the high risk areas for H7N9 and H5N1. Additional, H5N1 risk spots were identified in eastern Sichuan and southern Yunnan Provinces. Surveillance of the two viruses needs to be enhanced in these high risk areas to reduce the risk of future epidemics of avian influenza in China.


Asunto(s)
Subtipo H5N1 del Virus de la Influenza A/fisiología , Subtipo H7N9 del Virus de la Influenza A/fisiología , Gripe Aviar/virología , Gripe Humana/epidemiología , Gripe Humana/virología , Animales , Aves/virología , China/epidemiología , Geografía , Humanos , Incidencia , Modelos Biológicos , Probabilidad , Análisis de Regresión , Factores de Riesgo
19.
BMJ ; 351: h5765, 2015 Nov 19.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26586515

RESUMEN

STUDY QUESTION: Can avian influenza A (H7N9) virus be transmitted between unrelated individuals in a hospital setting? METHODS: An epidemiological investigation looked at two patients who shared a hospital ward in February 2015, in Quzhou, Zhejiang Province, China. Samples from the patients, close contacts, and local environments were examined by real time reverse transcriptase (rRT) polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and viral culture. Haemagglutination inhibition and microneutralisation assays were used to detect specific antibodies to the viruses. Primary outcomes were clinical data, infection source tracing, phylogenetic tree analysis, and serological results. STUDY ANSWER AND LIMITATIONS: A 49 year old man (index patient) became ill seven days after visiting a live poultry market. A 57 year old man (second patient), with a history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, developed influenza-like symptoms after sharing the same hospital ward as the index patient for five days. The second patient had not visited any poultry markets nor had any contact with poultry or birds within 15 days before the onset of illness. H7N9 virus was identified in the two patients, who both later died. Genome sequences of the virus isolated from both patients were nearly identical, and genetically similar to the virus isolated from the live poultry market. No specific antibodies were detected among 38 close contacts. Transmission between the patients remains unclear, owing to the lack of samples collected from their shared hospital ward. Although several environmental swabs were positive for H7N9 by rRT-PCR, no virus was cultured. Owing to delayed diagnosis and frequent hospital transfers, no serum samples were collected from the patients, and antibodies to H7N9 viruses could not be tested. WHAT THIS STUDY ADDS: Nosocomial H7N9 transmission might be possible between two unrelated individuals. Surveillance on patients with influenza-like illness in hospitals as well as chickens in live poultry markets should be enhanced to monitor transmissibility and pathogenicity of the virus. FUNDING, COMPETING INTERESTS, DATA SHARING: Funding support from the Program of International Science and Technology Cooperation of China (2013DFA30800), Basic Work on Special Program for Science and Technology Research (2013FY114600), National Natural Science Foundation of China (81402730), Special Program for Prevention and Control of Infectious Diseases in China (2013ZX10004218), US National Institutes of Health (1R01-AI108993), Zhejiang Province Major Science and Technology Program (2014C03039), and Quzhou Science and Technology Program (20111084). The authors declare no other interests and have no additional data.


Asunto(s)
Infección Hospitalaria/epidemiología , Subtipo H7N9 del Virus de la Influenza A , Gripe Humana/transmisión , Adulto , Anciano , China/epidemiología , Femenino , Humanos , Subtipo H7N9 del Virus de la Influenza A/aislamiento & purificación , Gripe Humana/epidemiología , Gripe Humana/virología , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Reacción en Cadena en Tiempo Real de la Polimerasa , Adulto Joven
20.
Lancet Infect Dis ; 15(12): 1467-1479, 2015 Dec.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26453241

RESUMEN

Since the beginning of the 1980s, 33 emerging tick-borne agents have been identified in mainland China, including eight species of spotted fever group rickettsiae, seven species in the family Anaplasmataceae, six genospecies in the complex Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato, 11 species of Babesia, and the virus causing severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome. In this Review we have mapped the geographical distributions of human cases of infection. 15 of the 33 emerging tick-borne agents have been reported to cause human disease, and their clinical characteristics have been described. The non-specific clinical manifestations caused by tick-borne pathogens present a major diagnostic challenge and most physicians are unfamiliar with the many tick-borne diseases that present with non-specific symptoms in the early stages of the illness. Advances in and application of modern molecular techniques should help with identification of emerging tick-borne pathogens and improve laboratory diagnosis of human infections. We expect that more novel tick-borne infections in ticks and animals will be identified and additional emerging tick-borne diseases in human beings will be discovered.


Asunto(s)
Infecciones por Anaplasmataceae/epidemiología , Vectores Arácnidos/microbiología , Babesiosis/epidemiología , Enfermedad de Lyme/epidemiología , Infecciones por Rickettsia/epidemiología , Enfermedades por Picaduras de Garrapatas/epidemiología , Garrapatas/microbiología , Anaplasmataceae/patogenicidad , Anaplasmataceae/fisiología , Infecciones por Anaplasmataceae/microbiología , Animales , Vectores Arácnidos/clasificación , Babesia/patogenicidad , Babesia/fisiología , Babesiosis/microbiología , Grupo Borrelia Burgdorferi/patogenicidad , Grupo Borrelia Burgdorferi/fisiología , China/epidemiología , Humanos , Enfermedad de Lyme/microbiología , Salud Pública/estadística & datos numéricos , Rickettsia/patogenicidad , Rickettsia/fisiología , Infecciones por Rickettsia/microbiología , Enfermedades por Picaduras de Garrapatas/microbiología , Garrapatas/clasificación
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